Plan · a288bf28 · category: odds/math-consensus

Consensus equals the arithmetic mean of de-vigged book probabilities

3 plans: Market consensus probabilities sum to 1.0; Consensus equals the arithmetic mean of de-vigged book probabilities; Consensus is computed on probabilities, not by averaging decimal odds

P0 · CORRECTNESSCATEGORY · ODDS/MATH-CONSENSUSWORLD-CUP-2026-V3 · PHASE 7

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Plan steps · 4 ops

Navigate to /api/matches and read the first match id from the response

Navigate to /match-odds/<first-id>.json using the captured id

Read every book's devigged.home value and compute their arithmetic mean, then read the stored consensus.home value

Verify the stored consensus.home equals the mean of the books' devigged.home values within plus or minus 0.005, and confirm the same relationship for draw and away. The consensus must be derivable from the book rows in the same artifact, not an independent or hard-coded figure.

Plan metadata

Plan ida288bf28

Suiteworld-cup-2026-v3 phase 7

CategoryMath Consensus

PriorityP0

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