Plan · b739eb1b · category: odds/math-consensus

Consensus is computed on probabilities, not by averaging decimal odds

3 plans: Market consensus probabilities sum to 1.0; Consensus equals the arithmetic mean of de-vigged book probabilities; Consensus is computed on probabilities, not by averaging decimal odds

P1 · CORRECTNESSCATEGORY · ODDS/MATH-CONSENSUSWORLD-CUP-2026-V3 · PHASE 7

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Plan steps · 4 ops

Navigate to /api/matches and read the first match id from the response

Navigate to /match-odds/<first-id>.json using the captured id

Compute the mean of the books' decimal.home values and invert it (1 / mean-decimal), then read the stored consensus.home

Verify the stored consensus.home matches the mean of the books' de-vigged home probabilities and does NOT equal the inverse of the averaged decimal odds. If consensus.home is closest to 1/(mean decimal.home) instead, the build used the decimal-averaging trap and fails.

Plan metadata

Plan idb739eb1b

Suiteworld-cup-2026-v3 phase 7

CategoryMath Consensus

PriorityP1

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